Are EVs really dead?

I’m listening to Doug Demuro’s podcast, and they claim that losing the 7500 credit is going to kill EV adoption and technological advancement in the US.

Do we truly believe that EVs as they stand right now, in the world where California gets rolling blackouts during the summer, Texas’s grid can’t handle the winters, and states like Florida flood and lose power for weeks we can have a full EV adoption mandate?

Also, you’ll have problems in cities like NYC, Boston, Paris, Berlin, Madrid, Brussels… where do you install chargers for everyone when population is so dense and even just parking spaces are so scarce.

I think the future is just mild and/ or full plug-in hybrid with probably 20/60/20 ICE/hybrid/PHEV or something like that.

 

In this world where we choose to dump vast amounts of electricity into crypto calculating nothing, LLM’s calculating wrong answers, etc. we absolutely can.
Charging can be scheduled, done at non-peak hours, and you can even use them to help manage grid demand as well at scale, or power your house in the event of an outage at an individual level.

There are a lot of tools available for governments and utilities, as well as owners to reduce impact.

“EV mandate” gets thrown around so much but the point of the incentive is to spur development, etc of a new technology and adjust targets in the future. (especially as electric is often a pricier/luxury option today)

Oil is already subsidized a crazy amount as it is as we have some of the lowest fuel prices in the developed world in the USA.

They’ll continue on outside of the US, if more punitive measures come down the pipeline like that extra tax on hybrids, electric vehicles etc. that dwarfs the usual person’s gas tax then it’s an incentive to pick a less efficient vehicle.

Also, it may come as a surprise, but not everyone needs a car when they live in a city today. There are other ways to get around and a personal vehicle can become a liability when you can just walk/bus/train/bike/taxi/etc. to where you need to go especially since the city is congested regardless of how your vehicle is powered.

So if the “concerns” played up by whoever are just peak grid demand and city parking, those aren’t as big of a deal as they may seem at first glance.

Oh and also since humans are so good at turning various things into electricity, one can power their car via generator, solar, etc. in a pinch while practically none of us can extraction crude and refine our own gasoline if the station’s closed in an outage or other disaster.

No, electricity isn’t an inherent superior fuel today, but it has much more than just cons to it.

But yes it will hamper adoption quite a bit. See: The Slate pickup turning from a cute minimal runabout to a pile of compromise for the money - although I’m not certain it’d succeed even with the incentive.

 

I'm happy to see a demand for EVs so gas prices and gas vehicle prices don't go up like crazy. (supply & demand)

My work place have considerable amount of EV owners ranging from Tesla, Hyundai, Nissan & Vw. (There are plugin hybrids from Toyota, Mercedes too) I see the struggle they go through with unreliable chargers my work place have. With the rain make EV ownership challenging too.

Since the free charging stations have lot of reliability issues those who don't have a garage go to paid charging places and they are very costly to my eyes. Ex - 30KW costs $21 with near by EVGO station. 30KW are like 100miles of range in a Nissan Leaf. $21 for 100 miles vs on my last fill up I spent $61(mid grade at shell) for 300+miles which a 4Runner cost less even pumping mid grade at most expensive gas station.

Couple days back my friend with Tesla model 3 said the car cost 10% of battery for cooling when we had all most 100F temperature. So it cost money just sitting.

I know EV owners talk big about maintenance but seem to hide the real cost. For example the Tesla Model 3 needed new tires after 10K miles & Rivian R1S needed tire after 12K miles. Needless to say how much those tires costs vs 4runner 17in tires.

But I can say the service experience is good. couple times when the Tesla was brokendown needing a new "computer", the ipad like screen & the another time a software glitch not able to take charge (if I'm not mistaken), my friend got another Tesla to use. I doubt if my 4Runner was brokendown (if it ever breaks) I would get another 4Runner as loaner car.

I also have few more complains on EV but thats personal taste I think. Like having to go through menus on screen to open glove box & frunk. My lady friend didnt know how to put highbeams manually (so till date I don't know how to turn on highbeams manually and disable auto highbeam). Not having rear wiper. And more.. On a positive note the EV I would prefer to drive is Rivian. It has more controls like a regular vehicle.

 

No. It’s a set back but increasing fuel costs will be a motivator. It will slow down adoption, but slowing installation of new chargers has a bigger impact because range anxiety was a bigger mark against them. And that can only be fixed with more chargers.

EV aren’t much worse when you can charge anywhere you park. They’re a lot worse when your only way to charge is waiting 30 minutes at a super charger.

Power grid issues were a problem for everyone, stations use electric pumps to pump gas, you still need electricity to fill a gas car in most stations. And most of us buy fuel with credit cards anyways.

 

It makes sense for some people and not for others......just like everything else in life.

I would have no hesitation getting an EV as our second family vehicle for commuting to work and city driving. We have solar on our house and a battery storage system. We could essentially charge our car for free.

But for single people who live in apartment buildings and go on long trips, it wouldn't make a lot of sense.

Should EV's be a mandate? No, not full stop but I do think there should be gov't incentives to buy them just like there are gov't subsidies on oil.

 

I should mention, I have a Tesla charger in my townhome. My wife drive a 2023 model 3 with 60k on the clock and the 4R has 8k on the clock.

the model 3 is the get around town to drive the entire greater Miami Dade area ranging from Miami to Jupiter Florida. We have done cross state road trips in the model 3 as well.

we also owned the model 3 when we lived in a condo and thankfully have a charging station 7 minutes away from our place.

 

I told a similar thing while we discuss about EV stuff at office and the reply I got was, "Have you calculated the cost of parts and installation? Per his quotes its about $30000 - 35000 just for solar system. He also said he could not ask "what would be the cost to remove and install back the panels when a new roof is needed." Here in Denver we get hail storms so changing roofs a common thing.


My friends neighbor has a Tesla WallPower thing. I was thinking to my self why it was installed outside the house since the batteries don't like high or low temperatures. Maybe garage is not ideal either as may be worse than outside.

 

No. Full stop.

We The People don't need anyone telling us what products we must buy.

If you want one, and it suits your lifestyle, then have at it. If it doesn't, then burn some oil. God gave us dead, decaying dinosaurs for a reason.
But in no way should an organization (read: .gov) mandate that we buy or use a particular product.

That's just my opinion, and worth every penny you paid for it.

 

I think the tax credit going away is going to kill a ton of EV sales, at least for the common people. The rich won’t care. EV sales have already been tanking while the credit was still available. The dealer lots and secondary storage lots are full of EVs that no one wants. Hopefully this forces the manufacturers to make simple and cheap EVs instead of the over complicated stuff they currently create.

 

EVs cant really help me & my dad on the farm. I just don’t see them being affordable for farmers & or helpful really. Don’t think anyone can convince us to buy an EV tractor just to bale hay. Even on my buddys massive corn farm in Nebraska

 

Texas is charging EV owners a one time up front $400.00 registration fee upon vehicle purchase, and then a $200.00 annual registration renewal fee on top of that, to offset loss of gasoline tax revenue.

 

Consumers will have the final word on adoption and choices. Amen for having the freedom to choose either way.

 

EV's as they are today are not the answer and pushing people towards them only delays what needs to happen. Removing the tax credit wont bother the majority of EV owners, its more about the emotional and perceived benefits.

What needs to happen is the Alien technology we have had since the 50's needs to be released and used for the public. Its getting ridiculous now.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens in states like MA where they set a new EV sales only mandate starting in 2035. It was supposed to require an increase of EV sales each year up to then. They put it on a two year pause a couple months ago.

 

It’s a confusing patchwork of incentives and disincentives that warp the ICE and EV markets. The idea that the oil industry and the EV industry are both subsidized is insane.

My brother is a police officer with the LAPD. He was privy to a report with details of a meeting among L.A.’s feckless mayor and other so-called dignitaries. The topic was the environmental effects of the recent Palisades fire in which thousands of homes were lost. In the report, that event was likened to 9/11 in terms of long term deleterious health impacts on first responders. And burning EV batteries were called out as the main culprit. As a result it is now policy that firefighters only approach burning EV’s and hybrids while wearing full Scott-Pak regalia.

 

We were lucky in that we bought the house with the solar and back-up battery already installed. Was that cost baked into the home purchase? Definitely not the entire cost. Probably not even a fraction. It just made the house more attractive to some potential buyers.

As for what needs to be done when installing a new roof......it's not that big of a deal. The panels unplug quickly and a few brackets are removed and then reinstalled once the new roof is put on. We change a roof once every 30 years or so here.

 

I'm not opposed to some mandates.

Would it really be so bad if public transport had to be electric by 2050 (or some other reasonable date)?

As @kmeeg pointed out earlier, at least there would be more competition in the transport sector so that the dino oil oligarchy doesn't control the entire segment.

But in lieu of mandates for you and I (and our personal choices as citizens), I'm advocating for incentives.

 

Ugh. I don’t want to be the jerk in this discussion. I really don’t.

But… mandates / incentives… there’s a fine difference there, if you push it hard enough. And pushed hard enough, they’re just different words for coercion.

Back to your point: want to make public transport electric? Fine. But do it if it makes sense. Do a full-on FMEA (failure modes effects analysis) on it before implementing it. Example: these big ol’ batteries don’t work at their best when it’s brutally frickin’ cold out. Do you want to put a bunch of kids on an electric school bus in such cold? What’s the potential failure effect? Bus craps out, no heat, cold kids. And ya can’t just bring a can of electrons out and dump ‘em in the tank like you can with gasoline or diesel. (Granted, diesel sucks in the brutal cold, too.)

Use electric things where electric things make sense; use dino-juice when that works well for you. But don’t go ‘round forcing others’ choices. One of my friends and I have talked about this a lot, in the sense of “general rules for life.” In general, Rule Number One is, “nobody likes being told what to do.”

 

This is what really bothered me. The mandates. The government doesn't get to dictate what we citizens buy. We dictate (as consumers) what the market will do or won't do. I love that consumers pushed back so hard on EV mandates.

They can mandate that manufacturers make x amount of electric vehicles, but guess what? We (I) don't have to buy it! I love watching governments walk back their brilliant ass ideas from the last administration.

 

^^^^
Some appear to have forgotten who works for whom.
And I think some are [slowly] re-learning.

 

You can make the best EV on earth but without a MAJOR $$$ upgrades in our grid and charging infrastructure EVs will never replace the ICE.

 

I mean, busses that run on dino oil break down all the time.

What do they do? They have another bus come and pick up the kids. Why can't the same be done with an electric bus?

I understand what you're saying about the cold. The tech isn't fully developed yet for such climates. But I think it will be better in 2050 (or whatever). If it isn't, scrap the plans.

And I'll disagree about incentives and mandates. Two very different things.

Let me ask you this though......if current subsidies were taken away from oil here in the USA and gas was $10/gallon, wouldn't you want another less expensive option? Maybe more than one option........rather than just relying on dino oil for all of your transportation? I'm advocating for options and it's not easy for other options to exist with very powerful oligarchies like the oil industry on the playing field. That's why incentives are important for alternative tech to even have a chance.

 

So the bus thing is one example of many. We could get into driving battery-laden buses around the narrow mountain roads where I grew up, or what happens when a battery bus catches fire, or all sorts of other things. My point is basically that the technology isn’t developed well enough to be a full-on replacement for IC engines.

“But it will be better in 2050 (snip) If it isn’t, scrap the plans.” The key to me right now is the plan. From where I sit, the plans aren’t mature enough for mandates (not that I like mandates at all anyway). For some, the EV thing is great. But for an entity (.gov) to tell manufacturers they MUST build x number of these, thereby limiting choices for consumers who just don’t want them, is just wrong. We can disagree on incentives and mandates; I’m okay with that. (And I’m not trying to be snarky with that statment… heck, if you weren’t on the other end of the country, I’d say “let’s have a beer and discuss it more.”)

As for subsidies: I’ll admit that i don’t know enough about the economics of one fuel over the other, with respect to who’s getting how much .gov money. And I’m not even going to dive into the thought of “oligarchies” and all that mess.

I’ll say though, using a piece of your statement, that EV is an option and should not be forced. Tell me an EV is a cheap way to get to work each day and pick up groceries on the way home, and I might not argue much. Tell me that I must give up my SUV (or even my 40 mpg diesel sedan) and go all-electric, and I’m going to be quite unhappy. Many of us could list places we go where charging an EV just isn’t going to happen; but that’s an infrastructure thing, and somewhat off the main topic. I’ll add, too, a parallel I see often out here in the sticks: gadgets (cars, trucks, even appliances these days are built on the assumption that everybody has great signal, 100 percent of the time. That’s just not so. Heck, I saw a gas range at Lowe’s the other day that was internet-enabled. A) Just why? and B) do I really want to rely on my spotty internet connection to manage something that’s burning a flame inside my house? Again, off-topic, but an illustration of some group thinking “this is wonderful! Everyone should do it!” No. Not everyone should do it, nor do we want to.

Back on track: for each point a person can give me on why EV is super wonderful, someone can offer a retort on why it’s not. And many, many people will spend many, many hours debating (arguing) with each other about it. Example: “Look at what you save on fuel!” vs “Look at increased tire wear expenses.” My little diesel saves me a ton of fuel cost on my daily runnings… that’s great, until the state charges me an extra fee at each annual registration time… because it’s a fuel-efficient vehicle. Where does that make sense to the consumer? (Yes, I know it’s because they’re not making as much money from me on fuel taxes and they want to make up the revenue somewhere.)

Again… nobody likes being told what to do. Show the consumers that something is a reasonable option and let them make their own choices, and all might be well. Tell consumers they have to buy/use a particular product, and there’s going to be a big problem.

I offer all this with kindness and sincerity — not to be an opinionated jerk. Beer?

 

In CA the power companies offer deals (lower costs) to turn off your AC at their imagined need thru electronic swiches wired into your home power. Because electricity rapidly becomes scarce.
Lets lower the costs of new vehicles by eliminating all the "safety gizmos" required by political overloards.
Power grids (generators & distribution) are fragile. Wildfire are blamed on the Power grid sparking. Windmills are especially invasive to our ecosystem. Nobody cares about the massive Concrete Foundations that are under every tower. Their demolition, removal & recycle is a cost that wipes out any imagined cost benefits of " free wind".

 

Let’s start with daytime running lights!

 

1) Daytime Running Lights.
2) Forward collision sensor(s).
3) Backup sensors.
4) Front Cross Traffic Alert.
5) AUTO START STOP!
6) Radar Cruise Control.
7) Lane Keep Assist.
8) ALLLLLLLLLLLLL the airbags. Seriously, why does the third row passenger need an airbag? Eff them!
9) The beep that goes off if either of the front seat passengers doesn't have their seatbelt clicked.
10) Rear seat belt alert. This happened when I had a 2025 Nissan Sentra rental. I had to keep the rear seats buckled in at all times.

 

I'm always down for a beer!

 

I’ve got to find that pic of the coal miners in WV, pushing a dead Tesla to the mine, to get some juice and charge the thing!

Edit: Here we go! (Link)

 

Yup. Forcing people to buy something that is more expensive and less convenient to use isn’t going to fly with most people. Instead of forcing EVs give homeowners better incentives to put solar on their homes or property. That’s going to save more energy overall.